I wrote Hope Island in 2019 – already one of the three predicted events has come far to close to reality – and we’re not out of the woods yet.
After a lot of research I decided a flea-born viral encephalitis was as likely as any to break out. A new form could be difficult to treat and have a high case morbidity rate. Since then there have been cases reported, but thankfully not a pandemic (for the moment we’re coping with a corona virus that is causing havoc even a much lower CMR than I feared).
I estimated that in an extreme situation the population might be reduced nearer to that of the year 1800. In the USA that would mean a loss of 98% of the population (although the population expansion in America has been Fast and significantly affected to immigration), in the UK 95% of the population would die. Worldwide we do not have reliable population figures for that date.
It was after checking those figures that another suspicion was confirmed – one of the major problems the world faces is overpopulation, simply too many people. If you could solve that problem, many of the others would disappear.